Analysis of Households Vulnerability and Food Insecurity in Amhara Regional State of Ethiopia: Using Value at Risk Analysis

Abstract

 This study examines household’s food insecurity and the extent of future vulnerability in Amhara region, using WMS and HCES of CSA. Calorie  method was employed to determine food insecurity. In addition to descriptive statistics, GLS application for vulnerability and the Logit models was used to analyze the data. The Results indicates that, demand side factor related to socio economic factors like family sizes, education, consumption, employment opportunities and asset ownership was a significant predictor of vulnerability and food insecurity. In rural areas, supply side factors like farm inputs and farm size are also related to food insecurity. Empirical finding also shows that idiosyncratic health-related shocks, covariate economic and environmental shocks have larger impact on vulnerability to food insecurity. Moreover, future vulnerability of households is highly related with current food insecurity, but not uni-directional, particularly in rural areas. Socio economic and location differences were also observed in the intensity of vulnerability. It shows that both transitory and chronic food insecurity are highly prevalent in rural areas. The results imply that education, diversification of livelihoods and resources which will raise consumption, will be crucial in attainment of food security. It also strongly supports promotion of family planning; enhancing livestock packages, creation of employment opportunities, delivery of targeting aid for needy groups and input access by  the poor in the study area. Managements of hazards and risks adequately which enable the poor to escape from vulnerability are immensely vital. Overall, it showed that reducing vulnerability and attaining food security in the region requires adoption of mixed strategies and policies.